Call me Ishmael: addressing the white whale of team communication in the operating room with labelled surgical caps at an academic medical centre.

INTRODUCTION: Effective communication in the operating room (OR) is crucial. Addressing a colleague by their name is respectful, humanising, entrusting and associated with improved clinical outcomes. We aimed to enhance team communication in the perioperative environment by offering personalised surgical caps labelled with name and provider role to all OR team members at a large academic medical centre. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This was a quasi-experimental, uncontrolled, before-and-after quality improvement study. A survey regarding perceptions of team communication, knowledge of names and roles, communication barriers, and culture was administered before and after cap delivery. Survey results were measured on a 5-point Likert Scale; descriptive statistics and mean scores were compared. All cause National Surgical Quality Improvement Project (NSQIP) morbidity and mortality outcomes for surgical specialties were examined. RESULTS: 1420 caps were delivered across the institution. Mean survey scores increased for knowing the names and roles of providers around the OR, feeling that people know my name and feeling comfortable communicating without barriers across disciplines. The mean score for team communication around the OR is excellent was unchanged. The highest score both before and after was knowing the name of an interdisciplinary team member is important for patient care. A total of 383 and 212 providers participated in the study before and after cap delivery, respectively. Participants agreed or strongly agreed that labelled surgical caps made it easier to talk to colleagues (64.9%) while improving communication (66.0%), team culture (60.5%) and patient care (56.8%). No significant differences were noted in NSQIP outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Personalised labelled surgical caps are a simple, inexpensive tool that demonstrates promise in improving perioperative team communication. Creating highly reliable surgical teams with optimal communication channels requires a multifaceted approach with engaged leadership, empowered front-line providers and an institutional commitment to continuous process improvement.

Impact of HIV self-testing for oral pre-exposure prophylaxis scale-up on drug resistance and HIV outcomes in western Kenya: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Community-based oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) provision has the potential to expand PrEP coverage. HIV self-testing can facilitate PrEP community-based delivery but might have lower sensitivity than facility-based HIV testing, potentially leading to inappropriate PrEP use among people with HIV and subsequent development of drug resistance. We aimed to evaluate the impact of HIV self-testing use for PrEP scale-up. METHODS: We parameterised an agent-based network model, EMOD-HIV, to simulate generic tenofovir disoproxil fumarate and emtricitabine PrEP scale-up in western Kenya using four testing scenarios: provider-administered nucleic acid testing, provider-administered rapid diagnostic tests detecting antibodies, blood-based HIV self-testing, or oral fluid HIV self-testing. Scenarios were compared with a no PrEP counterfactual. Individuals aged 18-49 years with one or more heterosexual partners who screened HIV-negative were eligible for PrEP. We assessed the cost and health impact of rapid PrEP scale-up with high coverage over 20 years, and the budget impact over 5 years, using various HIV testing modalities. FINDINGS: PrEP coverage of 29% was projected to avert approximately 54% of HIV infections and 17% of HIV-related deaths among adults aged 18-49 years over 20 years; health impacts were similar across HIV testing modalities used to deliver PrEP. The percentage of HIV infections with PrEP-associated nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI) drug resistance was 0·6% (95% uncertainty intervals 0·4-0·9) in the blood HIV self-testing scenario and 0·8% (0·6-1·0) in the oral HIV self-testing scenario, compared with 0·3% (0·2-0·3) in the antibody rapid diagnostic testing scenario and 0·2% (0·1-0·2) in the nucleic acid testing scenario. Accounting for background NRTI resistance, we found similarly low proportions of drug resistance across scenarios. The budget impact of implementing PrEP using HIV self-testing and provider-administered rapid diagnostic tests were similar, while nucleic acid testing was approximately 50% more costly. INTERPRETATION: Scaling up PrEP using HIV self-testing has similar health impacts, costs, and low risk of drug resistance as provider-administered rapid diagnostic tests. Policy makers should consider leveraging HIV self-testing to expand PrEP access among those at HIV risk. FUNDING: The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

Surgical pit crew: initiative to optimise measurement and accountability for operating room turnover time.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Turnover time (TOT), defined as the time between surgical cases in the same operating room (OR), is often perceived to be lengthy without clear cause. With the aim of optimising and standardising OR turnover processes and decreasing TOT, we developed an innovative and staff-interactive TOT measurement method. METHODS: We divided TOT into task-based segments and created buttons on the electronic health record (EHR) default prelogin screen for appropriate staff workflows to collect more granular data. We created submeasures, including 'clean-up start', 'clean-up complete', 'set-up start' and 'room ready for patient', to calculate environmental services (EVS) response time, EVS cleaning time, room set-up response time, room set-up time and time to room accordingly. RESULTS: Since developing and implementing these workflows, measures have demonstrated excellent staff adoption. Median times of EVS response and cleaning have decreased significantly at our main hospital ORs and ambulatory surgery centre. CONCLUSION: OR delays are costly to hospital systems. TOT, in particular, has been recognised as a potential dissatisfier and cause of delay in the perioperative environment. Viewing TOT as one finite entity and not a series of necessary tasks by a variety of team members limits the possibility of critical assessment and improvement. By dividing the measurement of TOT into respective segments necessary to transition the room at the completion of one case to the onset of another, valuable insight was gained into the causes associated with turnover delays, which increased awareness and improved accountability of staff members to complete assigned tasks efficiently.

Shaping and coordinating the implementation science agenda for injectable cabotegravir for PrEP: the role of the Biomedical Prevention Implementation Collaborative (BioPIC).

INTRODUCTION: Data from two randomized controlled trials (RCTs) showed that injectable cabotegravir (CAB) for pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) was efficacious in reducing HIV acquisition. The US Food and Drug Administration approved CAB for PrEP in December 2021; Australia in August 2022; Zimbabwe in October 2022; South Africa in November 2022; Malawi in March 2023; and regulatory approvals are being sought in additional countries. The World Health Organization (WHO) recommended CAB be offered to people at substantial risk of HIV in July 2022. However, implementation experience beyond RCTs is limited. As countries consider CAB implementation, questions remain regarding delivery and involvement of populations excluded from the trials. A coordinated approach is needed to ensure these are addressed and CAB can be introduced in low- and middle-income countries in timely, acceptable and effective ways. DISCUSSION: Beginning in 2018, the Biomedical Prevention Implementation Collaborative (BioPIC) convened over 100 global health experts to develop a comprehensive introduction strategy for CAB. Using this roadmap, country landscaping for CAB introduction and lessons from oral PrEP implementation, AVAC and WHO co-convened 50 researchers, donors, implementers and civil society in September 2021 to: (1) identify questions and evidence gaps related to CAB across contexts and partners; (2) define the implementation science agenda; and (3) agree on mechanism(s) for future coordination. As a result, CAB-related questions were identified, including: defining optimal and feasible HIV testing strategies that expand access; delivery models; integration with a range of services, including family planning and antenatal care; and embedding CAB in demand generation for HIV prevention choices. Through convenings and mapping of implementation research, BioPIC identified gaps in populations, geographies and delivery approaches. CONCLUSIONS: The introduction strategy refined by BioPIC lays the groundwork for future HIV prevention products. Ongoing policy and implementation dialogue is critical to accelerate the design of CAB implementation studies that adequately address priority knowledge gaps. Additional long-acting HIV prevention products may be available over the next 5 years, increasing choice, but potentially making delivery and stakeholder engagement more complex. Ongoing coordination with WHO will accelerate the adoption of evidence-based policies and wide-scale implementation, and lessons from BioPIC can inform introduction processes for long-acting HIV prevention products.

Systematic review of the values and preferences regarding the use of injectable pre-exposure prophylaxis to prevent HIV acquisition.

INTRODUCTION: Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is an important HIV prevention option. Two randomized trials have provided efficacy evidence for long-acting injectable cabotegravir (CAB-LA) as PrEP. In considering CAB-LA as an additional PrEP modality for people at substantial risk of HIV, it is important to understand community response to injectable PrEP. We conducted a systematic review of values, preferences and perceptions of acceptability for injectable PrEP to inform global guidance. METHODS: We searched nine databases and conference websites for peer-reviewed and grey literature (January 2010-September 2021). There were no restrictions on location. A two-stage review process assessed references against eligibility criteria. Data from included studies were organized by constructs from the Theoretical Framework of Acceptability. RESULTS: We included 62 unique references. Most studies were observational, cross-sectional and qualitative. Over half of the studies were conducted in North America. Men who have sex with men were the most researched group. Most studies (57/62) examined injectable PrEP, including hypothetical injectables (55/57) or placebo products (2/57). Six studies examined CAB-LA specifically. There was overall interest in and often a preference for injectable PrEP, though there was variation within and across groups and regions. Many stakeholders indicated that injectable PrEP could help address adherence challenges associated with daily or on-demand dosing for oral PrEP and may be a better lifestyle fit for individuals seeking privacy, discretion and infrequent dosing. End-users reported concerns, including fear of needles, injection site pain and body location, logistical challenges and waning or incomplete protection. DISCUSSION: Despite an overall preference for injectable PrEP, heterogeneity across groups and regions highlights the importance of enabling end-users to choose a PrEP modality that supports effective use. Like other products, preference for injectable PrEP may change over time and end-users may switch between prevention options. There will be a greater understanding of enacted preference as more end-users are offered anti-retroviral (ARV)-containing injectables. Future research should focus on equitable implementation, including real-time decision-making and how trained healthcare providers can support choice. CONCLUSIONS: Given overall acceptability, injectable PrEP should be included as part of a menu of prevention options, allowing end-users to select the modality that suits their preferences, needs and lifestyle.

The Future of Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP) for HIV Prevention: A Global Qualitative Consultation on Provider Perspectives on New Products and Differentiated Service Delivery.

Differentiated service delivery and new products, such as long-acting injectable cabotegravir (CAB-LA) and the dapivirine vaginal ring (DVR), could increase uptake and use of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for HIV prevention. We explored PrEP provider perspectives on differentiated PrEP service delivery and new PrEP products to inform World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines and programme implementation. 150 PrEP providers who participated in a WHO survey were randomly selected and 67 were invited for interviews based on geographic representation, provider cadre, gender, experience with community-based PrEP service delivery, and familiarity with new PrEP products. Semi-structured interviews were conducted virtually. Key themes were inductively extracted relating to differentiated service delivery and benefits and concerns regarding new PrEP products. 30 PrEP providers from 24 countries were interviewed. Across regions, providers were supportive of differentiated service delivery to respond to clients' needs and preferences, maintain services during COVID-19, and ensure access for priority populations that may face access challenges. Providers welcomed prospects of offering CAB-LA to their clients but had concerns about HIV testing, costs, and the need for clinic-based services, including staff who can administer injections. Providers felt the DVR was potentially important for some cisgender women, especially young clients and female sex workers, and raised fewer concerns compared to injectable PrEP. Providers' views are critical for the development of guidelines and implementing programmes that will best serve PrEP users. Understanding areas where provider capacities and biases may create barriers can define opportunities for training and support to ensure that providers can deliver effective programmes.

Strengthening the HIV prevention cascade to maximise epidemiological impact in eastern Zimbabwe: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: HIV prevention cascades provide a systematic understanding of barriers to prevention. In this study we used mathematical modelling to understand the consequences of these barriers and how the cascade could be strengthened to maximise epidemiological impact, providing potentially important insights for programmes. METHODS: We used an individual-based model of HIV transmission (PopART-IBM), calibrated to data from the Manicaland cohort from eastern Zimbabwe. HIV prevention cascade estimates from this cohort were used as probabilities for indicators in the model representing an individual's motivation, access, and capacity to effectively use pre-exposure prophylaxis, voluntary male medical circumcision, and condoms. We examined how current barriers affect the number and distribution of HIV infections compared with a no-barrier scenario. Using assumptions about how interventions could strengthen the HIV prevention cascade, we estimated the reduction in HIV infections over a 10-year period through addressing different elements of the cascade. FINDINGS: 21 200 new potentially avertable HIV infections will occur over the next 10 years due to existing HIV prevention cascade barriers, 74·2% of the 28 500 new infections that would occur with existing barriers in a population of approximately 1·2 million adults. Removing these barriers would reduce HIV incidence below the benchmarks for epidemic elimination. Addressing all cascade steps in one priority population is substantially more effective than addressing one step across all populations. INTERPRETATION: Interventions exist in eastern Zimbabwe to reduce HIV towards elimination, but barriers of motivation, access, and effective use prevent their full effect being realised. Interventions need to be multilayered and address all steps along the HIV prevention cascade. Models incorporating the HIV prevention cascade can help to identify the main barriers to greater effectiveness. FUNDING: National Institutes of Mental Health, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and Medical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis funding from the UK Medical Research Council and UK Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO).

Safety and efficacy of long-acting injectable cabotegravir as preexposure prophylaxis to prevent HIV acquisition.

OBJECTIVE: HIV remains a significant burden, despite expanding HIV prevention tools. Long-acting injectable cabotegravir (CAB-LA) is a new preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) product. We reviewed existing evidence to determine the efficacy and safety of CAB-LA as PrEP to inform global guidelines. DESIGN: Systematic review and meta-analysis. METHODS: We systematically reviewed electronic databases and conference abstracts for citations on CAB-LA from January 2010 to September 2021. Outcomes included HIV infection, adverse events, drug resistance, pregnancy-related adverse events, and sexual behavior. We calculated pooled effect estimates using random-effects meta-analysis and summarized other results narratively. RESULTS: We identified 12 articles/abstracts representing four multisite randomized controlled trials. Study populations included cisgender men, cisgender women, and transgender women. The pooled relative risk of HIV acquisition comparing CAB-LA to oral PrEP within efficacy studies was 0.21 (95% confidence interval: 0.07-0.61), resulting in a 79% reduction in HIV risk. Rates of adverse events were similar across study groups. Of 19 HIV infections among those randomized to CAB-LA with results available, seven had integrase strand transfer inhibitor (INSTI) resistance. Data on pregnancy-related adverse events were sparse. No studies reported on sexual behavior. CONCLUSIONS: CAB-LA is highly efficacious for HIV prevention with few safety concerns. CAB-LA may lead to an increased risk of INSTI resistance among those who have acute HIV infection at initiation or become infected while taking CAB-LA. However, results are limited to controlled studies; more research is needed on real-world implementation. Additional data are needed on the safety of CAB-LA during pregnancy (for mothers and infants) and among populations not included in the trials.

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for HIV prevention among people who inject drugs: a global mapping of service delivery.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for all people at substantial risk of HIV as part of combination prevention. The extent to which this recommendation has been implemented globally for people who inject drugs is unclear. This study mapped global service delivery of PrEP for people who inject drugs. METHODS: Between October and December 2021, a desk review was conducted to obtain information on PrEP services for people who inject drugs from drug user-led networks and HIV, harm reduction, and human rights stakeholders. Websites of organizations involved in HIV prevention or services for people who inject drugs were searched. Models of service delivery were described in terms of service location, provider, and package. RESULTS: PrEP services were identified in 27 countries (15 high-income). PrEP delivery models varied within and across countries. In most services, PrEP services were implemented in healthcare clinics without direct links to other harm reduction services. In three countries, PrEP services were also provided at methadone clinics. In 14 countries, PrEP services were provided through community-based models (outside of clinic settings) that commonly involved peer-led outreach activities and integration with harm reduction services. CONCLUSIONS: This study indicates limited PrEP availability for people who inject drugs. There is potential to expand PrEP services for people who inject drugs within harm reduction programs, notably through community-based and peer-led services. PrEP should never be offered instead of evidence-based harm reduction programs for people who inject drugs; however, it could be offered as an additional HIV prevention choice as part of a comprehensive harm reduction program.

Predicted effects of the introduction of long-acting injectable cabotegravir pre-exposure prophylaxis in sub-Saharan Africa: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Long-acting injectable cabotegravir pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is recommended by WHO as an additional option for HIV prevention in sub-Saharan Africa, but there is concern that its introduction could lead to an increase in integrase-inhibitor resistance undermining treatment programmes that rely on dolutegravir. We aimed to project the health benefits and risks of cabotegravir-PrEP introduction in settings in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: With HIV Synthesis, an individual-based HIV model, we simulated 1000 setting-scenarios reflecting both variability and uncertainty about HIV epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa and compared outcomes for each with and without cabotegravir-PrEP introduction. PrEP use is assumed to be risk-informed and to be used only in 3-month periods (the time step for the model) when having condomless sex. We consider three groups at risk of integrase-inhibitor resistance emergence: people who start cabotegravir-PrEP after (unknowingly) being infected with HIV, those who seroconvert while on PrEP, and those with HIV who have residual cabotegravir drugs concentrations during the early tail period after recently stopping PrEP. We projected the outcomes of policies of cabotegravir-PrEP introduction and of no introduction in 2022 across 50 years. In 50% of setting-scenarios we considered that more sensitive nucleic-acid-based HIV diagnostic testing (NAT), rather than regular antibody-based HIV rapid testing, might be used to reduce resistance risk. For cost-effectiveness analysis we assumed in our base case a cost of cabotegravir-PrEP drug to be similar to oral PrEP, resulting in a total annual cost of USD$144 per year ($114 per year and $264 per year considered in sensitivity analyses), a cost-effectiveness threshold of $500 per disability-adjusted life years averted, and a discount rate of 3% per year. FINDINGS: Reflecting our assumptions on the appeal of cabotegravir-PrEP, its introduction is predicted to lead to a substantial increase in PrEP use with approximately 2·6% of the adult population (and 46% of those with a current indication for PrEP) receiving PrEP compared with 1·5% (28%) without cabotegravir-PrEP introduction across 20 years. As a result, HIV incidence is expected to be lower by 29% (90% range across setting-scenarios 6-52%) across the same period compared with no introduction of cabotegravir-PrEP. In people initiating antiretroviral therapy, the proportion with integrase-inhibitor resistance after 20 years is projected to be 1·7% (0-6·4%) without cabotegravir-PrEP introduction but 13·1% (4·1-30·9%) with. Cabotegravir-PrEP introduction is predicted to lower the proportion of all people on antiretroviral therapy with viral loads less than 1000 copies per mL by 0·9% (-2·5% to 0·3%) at 20 years. For an adult population of 10 million an overall decrease in number of AIDS deaths of about 4540 per year (-13 000 to -300) across 50 years is predicted, with little discernible benefit with NAT when compared with standard antibody-based rapid testing. AIDS deaths are predicted to be averted with cabotegravir-PrEP introduction in 99% of setting-scenarios. Across the 50-year time horizon, overall HIV programme costs are predicted to be similar regardless of whether cabotegravir-PrEP is introduced (total mean discounted annual HIV programme costs per year across 50 years is $151·3 million vs $150·7 million), assuming the use of standard antibody testing. With antibody-based rapid HIV testing, the introduction of cabotegravir-PrEP is predicted to be cost-effective under an assumed threshold of $500 per disability-adjusted life year averted in 82% of setting-scenarios at the cost of $144 per year, in 52% at $264, and in 87% at $114. INTERPRETATION: Despite leading to increases in integrase-inhibitor drug resistance, cabotegravir-PrEP introduction is likely to reduce AIDS deaths in addition to HIV incidence. Long-acting cabotegravir-PrEP is predicted to be cost-effective if delivered at similar cost to oral PrEP with antibody-based rapid HIV testing. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases of the National Institutes of Health.

Scaling up access to HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP): should nurses do the job?

Task sharing has been one of the most important enabling policies supporting the global expansion of access to HIV testing and treatment. The WHO public health approach, which relies on delivery of antiretroviral therapy (ART) by nurses, has enabled a trebling of the number of people receiving ART during the past decade. WHO recognises that HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) can also be provided by nurses; however, many countries still do not have policies in place that support nurse provision of PrEP. In sub-Saharan Africa, most countries allow nurses to prescribe ART, but only a few countries have policies in place that allow nurses to prescribe PrEP. Nurse-led PrEP delivery is particularly low in the Asia-Pacific region, which has some of the world's fastest growing epidemics. Even in many high-income countries, PrEP scale-up has been limited because policies often require medical doctors or specialists to prescribe. Service providers in many countries are coming to realise that scaling up access to PrEP cannot be achieved by medical doctors alone, and nurse-led PrEP delivery can help to lay the groundwork for supporting uptake of other HIV prevention approaches that will become available in the future. Countries with policies that authorise nurses to prescribe ART could be early adopters and help to pave the way for wider adoption of nurse-led PrEP delivery.

Kidney function in tenofovir disoproxil fumarate-based oral pre-exposure prophylaxis users: a systematic review and meta-analysis of published literature and a multi-country meta-analysis of individual participant data.

BACKGROUND: Previous WHO guidance on tenofovir disoproxil fumarate-based oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) suggests measuring creatinine levels at PrEP initiation and regularly afterwards, which might represent barriers to PrEP implementation and uptake. We aimed to systematically review published literature on kidney toxicity among tenofovir disoproxil fumarate-based oral PrEP users and conducted an individual participant data meta-analysis (IPDMA) on kidney function among PrEP users in a global implementation project dataset. METHODS: In this systematic review and meta-analysis we searched PubMed up to June 30, 2021, for randomised controlled trials (RCTs) or cohort studies that reported on graded kidney-related adverse events among oral PrEP users (tenofovir disoproxil fumarate-based PrEP alone or in combination with emtricitabine or lamivudine). We extracted summary data and conducted meta-analyses with random-effects models to estimate relative risks of grade 1 and higher and grade 2 and higher kidney-related adverse events, measured by elevated serum creatinine or decline in estimated creatinine clearance or estimated glomerular filtration rate. The IPDMA included (largely unpublished) individual participant data from 17 PrEP implementation projects and two RCTs. Estimated baseline creatinine clearance and creatinine clearance change after initiation were described by age, gender, and comorbidities. We used random-effects regressions to estimate the risk in decline of creatinine clearance to less than 60 mL/min. FINDINGS: We identified 62 unique records and included 17 articles reporting on 11 RCTs with 13 523 participants in meta-analyses. PrEP use was associated with increased risk of grade 1 and higher kidney adverse events (pooled odds ratio [OR] 1·49, 95% CI 1·22-1·81; I2=25%) and grade 2 and higher events (OR 1·75, 0·68-4·49; I2=0%), although the grade 2 and higher association was not statistically significant and events were rare (13 out of 6764 in the intervention group vs six out of 6782 in the control group). The IPDMA included 18 676 individuals from 15 countries (1453 [7·8%] from RCTs) and 79 (0·42%) had a baseline estimated creatinine clearance of less than 60 mL/min (increasing proportions with increasing age). Longitudinal analyses included 14 368 PrEP users and 349 (2·43%) individuals had a decline to less than 60 mL/min creatinine clearance, with higher risks associated with increasing age and baseline creatinine clearance of 60·00-89·99 mL/min (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 8·49, 95% CI 6·44-11·20) and less than 60 mL/min (aHR 20·83, 12·83-33·82). INTERPRETATION: RCTs suggest that risks of kidney-related adverse events among tenofovir disoproxil fumarate-based oral PrEP users are increased but generally mild and small. Our global PrEP user analysis found varying risks by age and baseline creatinine clearance. Kidney function screening and monitoring might focus on older individuals, those with baseline creatinine clearance of less than 90 mL/min, and those with kidney-related comorbidities. Less frequent or optional screening among younger individuals without kidney-related comorbidities may reduce barriers to PrEP implementation and use. FUNDING: Unitaid, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, WHO.

Adoption of guidelines on and use of oral pre-exposure prophylaxis: a global summary and forecasting study.

BACKGROUND: In 2016, the UN General Assembly set a global target of 3 million oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) users by 2020. With this target at an end, we aimed to assess global trends in the adoption of WHO PrEP recommendations into national guidelines and numbers of PrEP users, defined as people who received oral PrEP at least once in a given year, and to estimate future trajectories of PrEP use. METHODS: In this global summary and forecasting study, data on adoption of WHO PrEP recommendations and numbers of PrEP users were obtained through the Global AIDS Monitoring system and WHO regional offices. Trends in these indicators for 2016-19 by region and for 2019 by country were described, including by gender and priority populations where data were available. PrEP user numbers were forecasted until 2023 by selecting countries with at least 3 years of PrEP user data as example countries in each region to represent possible future PrEP user trajectories. PrEP user growth rates observed in example countries were applied to countries in corresponding regions under different scenarios, including a COVID-19 disruption scenario with static global PrEP use in 2020. FINDINGS: By the end of 2019, 120 (67%) of 180 countries with data had adopted the WHO PrEP recommendations into national guidelines (23 in 2019 and 30 in 2018). In 2019, there were about 626 000 PrEP users across 77 countries, including 260 000 (41·6%) in the region of the Americas and 213 000 (34·0%) in the African region; this is a 69% increase from about 370 000 PrEP users across 66 countries in 2018. Without COVID-19 disruptions, 0·9-1·1 million global PrEP users were projected by the end of 2020 and 2·4-5·3 million are projected by the end of 2023. If COVID-19 disruptions resulted in no PrEP user growth in 2020, the projected number of PrEP users in 2023 is 2·1-3·0 million. INTERPRETATION: Widespread adoption of WHO PrEP recommendations coincided with a global increase in PrEP use. Although the 2020 global PrEP target will be missed, strong future growth in PrEP use is possible. New PrEP products could expand the PrEP user base, and, with greater expansion of oral PrEP, further adoption of WHO PrEP recommendations, and simplified delivery, PrEP could contribute to ending AIDS by 2030. FUNDING: Unitaid, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and WHO.